World Cup Draw Preview: Projections, Best and Worst Scenarios

We have arrived at the hype moment ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. On Friday morning the world of football will learn their fate and the identity of their opponents in the tournament.

29 of the 32 team that will be playing in Qatar in November have clinched their spot in the World Cup - the final three will do so in June.

Wales will face the winner of the game between Scotland and Ukraine for the 13th and final spot for European nations.

Australia will take on the United Arab Emirates in the battle for 5th place in Asia - with the winner taking on Peru for a spot in the World Cup.

Finally Costa Rica will play New Zealand for another berth.

So if you're as impatient as me you want to start projecting who the U.S. and Mexico could end up facing in the tournament.

So I decided to carry out a draw of my own and here are the results of my mock Draft:

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
QATAR	ARGENTINA	SPAIN	ENGLAND
GERMANY	MEXICO	SWITZERLAND	CROATIA
SENEGAL	IR IRAN	KOREA REP.	TUNISIA
ECUADOR	WAL/SCO/UKR	CAMEROON	C.RICA/N. ZEALAND

Group E	Group F	Group G	Group H
FRANCE	PORTUGAL	BELGIUM	BRAZIL
UNITED STATES	URUGUAY	NETHERLANDS	DENMARK
POLAND	JAPAN	MOROCCO	SERBIA
GHANA	CANADA	PERU/AUS/UAE	SAUDI ARABIA

This are the results of my own draw - and it gives us an insight on a very interesting dynamic.

Being in pot 2 - Germany and the Netherlands become the wild cards to keep an eye out for. At least one of them will be paired with one of the other top team.

In this scenario - Belgium and Netherlands would end up in the same group and becomes an immediate candidate to be the group of death.

If you're talk about groups that would be fun to watch it would be Group F - Portugal, Uruguay, Japan and Canada - 4 teams with a lot of fun and exciting players to watch and all 4 have a chance to advance even though Portugal and Uruguay would be the favorites.

In this scenario the U.S. would draw one of the worst-case scenarios with defending World Cup Champions France, Poland who has the best goal scorer in the world in Robert Lewandowski and the U.S. nemesis - Ghana who they faced in their previous three world cup appearances winning one and losing the other 2.

Mexico would get a fairly balanced group with a tough opponent in Argentina. Iran comes in as the best team in Asia and the winner of the final European berth - which Wales would be favored to win.

A few other notes in this mock draw is a potential rematch between Spain and Switzerland. in 2010, Spain was shocked in the opening game against the Swiss losing 1-0 - and then go on to win their next 6 games en route to their first and only World Cup title.

England and Croatia would be paired once again - Croatia defeated the Three Lions in the semifinals 4 year ago and faced each other again in the Nations League and Euro - with England winning two of those three games.

One of the best things that can happen in the draw is for either Germany and Netherlands fall in Group A with host Qatar essentially becoming the de facto seeded team in the group.

Possible second round games for US/Mexico

U.S. v. Portugal - or Uruguay if they win their group.

Mexico v. Germany - or Senegal if they win their group.

Projected Quarterfinals

Germany v. Spain

Argentina v. England

France v. Belgium

Portugal v. Brazil

What about a balanced draw

In addition to my mock draft - I grouped teams together to create the most balanced groups possible. Essentially I take the S-Curve approach in which the lowest team from Pot 1 plays the top team from Pot 2 and the lowest in Pot 3 and lowest from Pot 4.

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
QATAR	BRAZIL	BELGIUM	FRANCE
NETHERLANDS	CROATIA	URUGUAY	SWITZERLAND
SERBIA	SENEGAL	IR IRAN	JAPAN
C. RICA/N. ZEALAND	SAUDI ARABIA	GHANA	ECUADOR

Group E	Group F	Group G	Group H
ARGENTINA	ENGLAND	SPAIN	PORTUGAL
DENMARK	UNITED STATES	MEXICO	GERMANY
POLAND	MOROCCO	TUNISIA	KOREA REP.
CAMEROON	WAL/UKR/SCO	PERU/AUS/UAE	CANADA

Technically speaking this should be the fairest possible draw - one of the things that becomes apparent is that Canada will have a tough draw regardless.

In this scenario the U.S. would have a bit better outlook - facing England, Morocco and likely Wales. England may be half a step behind France, and Wales is a bit better than Ghana - but there is a decent difference between facing Poland or Morocco.

Mexico would have a good chance - in this scenario - the clear favorite would be Spain, with Mexico favored over Tunisia and likely at a similar level than Peru. Would be an even favorit if Australia or UAE make the tournament.

Possible second round games for US/MEX

U.S. v. Argentina - or Denmark/Poland if they win group.

Mexico v. Portugal or Germany

Worst Case Scenarios

As I mentioned earlier - the mock draw could potentially be a worst case scenario with France, Poland and Ghana - A second worst case scenario for both U.S. and Mexico would be to be paired with Spain, Senegal and Wales.

What we can conclude is that regardless of luck in the draw - both should be in the fight to reach the second round.

Best case Scenarios

Now on the other side of the coin - the obvious case is to fall in the same group with Qatar, along with them having Tunisia and and either Peru or Ecuador would be the easiest path - and both U.S. and Mexico should win the group if things go their way.

Another more realistic scenario would be to face Belgium who despite still having a lot of quality the team has been showing signs of coming down from their best moment and have shown signs of weakness particularly at the back.

Along with Belgium Tunisia and Saudi Arabia could round out that particular group.

Pot 1 teams I hope U.S. and Mexico avoid: France, Spain, England

Bring them on: Qatar, Brazil, Argentina, Belgium and Portugal