What the 2026 FIFA World Cup field could look like?

We’re just a few months away from the 2022 World Cup which will be the last edition with 32 countries.

It has been a widely successful format allowing for a good balance of representation across the globe while not diluting the quality of play - That’s all about to change.

Starting in 2026 for the World Cup hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico - the field will expand - but what would a 48-team World Cup in North America could look like?

That’s the answer I set myself to answer.

Instead of projecting the teams that could qualify through the unreliable FIFA rankings - I decided to use the qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup as the measuring stick.

What other countries would've made the field?

For Concacaf - it would've meant that Panama and Jamaica who finished fifth and sixth World Cup Qualifying in the region would've also qualified.

From South America - Peru and Colombia would've made the field.

In Europe - Ukraine, Sweden and North Macedonia would have earned a spot in the tournament while Italy would still miss out.

From Africa - Teams like Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, and Mali.

In Asia, this would mean that the United Arab Emirates and Oman - along with New Zealand from Oceania make the cut.

The six teams going to an intercontinental playoff for the final two sports would have been Chile, Iraq, El Salvador, Honduras, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Solomon Islands. For Simplicity purposes I gave Chile and Iraq, the two highest ranked teams - the last two places.

SETTING THE FIELD

Something I would like to see done is to make sure that the best team from each region, except Oceania, are among the top 16 seeds, so the hosts Canada, United States and Mexico align with Iran and Senegal would’ve been top seeds along with the 11 best ranked teams.

For the actual ‘draw’ I decided to place the host nation in Groups A, E and I.

What could the groups look like?

The biggest takeaway from this exercise is the fact that the group stage will lose its flare under the new format.

While there could be some interesting battles to win a group - or two teams fighting for the second place in the group - it is clear there will be only a handful of games that would need to be circled by fans.

In this scenario this are the games that seem the most intriguing

Mexico vs. Wales

Brazil vs. Croatia

Netherlands vs. Colombia

Uruguay vs. Poland

United States vs. Ukraine

Argentina vs. Sweden

and that's about it.

While there are some competitive group's like the one with Belgium, Korea Republic and Ecuador where all teams have a chance to advance, the individual matchups are not that enticing.

This is a problem - when just 5 or 6 of the 48 group stage games feel like must watch matches.

The classic group stage matches such as the Spain-Portugal, Mexico-Germany from 2018 - or the groups of death in 2014 with Italy, England, Costa Rica and Uruguay; and Germany, Portugal, United States and Ghana playing the same group will soon become a thing of the past - as you will now have to wait until the knockout stage to see those matchups.

OTHER CONSEQUENCES

Another unintended consequence I'm sure the top heads at FIFA have not considered is the order of games.

This is important - take Group B for instance. The Brazil-Croatia game will be the most anticipated game in that group, but is likely that both beat Jamaica and get to the final game having already qualified and are more concerned about resting players for the second round, rather than seeking to win the group.

If you have Brazil and Jamaica play in the last game, you have a similar problem Brazil would be a heavy favorite that would be tempted to rest its top players.

Also, if you have the lower seeded team play in the first two rounds you could see a circumstance where 4 or 5 teams would be eliminated with another 6 or 7 yet to make their debut.

While FIFA avoided the format of 12 groups of 4 - to have teams play one fewer game amid concerns of player burnout - I think it's inevitable that the format will have to change down the road as the proposed one for 2026 is too problematic.