A look at the statistical history of the FIFA World Cup - Part 1: When in the lead

Every four years the World Cup brings us countless storylines and a vast array of mixed emotions. From the joy of winning, to the amusement of an underdog defying the odds, the madness generated by a last-gasp late goal and the despair of elimination which all but one team has to endure.

This rollercoaster ride that lasts a month has garnered the attention of the world and for most fans, it’s hard to put into words what the World Cup is unless you’ve enjoyed it from the comfort of your home or witnessed a part of its rich history in the stands.

Though, most of the time the favorites tend to be the last few teams standing. The unpredictability, the unsung heroes who unexpectedly grab the spotlight in the grandest stage is what makes it a unique experience.

Lately, a question that I’ve made myself has been, whether there is a way to be able to make at least some predictions as to what the fans can expect based on recent history at the World Cup.

Can we predict when goals are more likely to be scored? and how often do teams who go down in a game bounce back to win?

My intrigue and impatience have led to this path of exploring some historical data trends to try to gain additional insight about some of the intricacies we should look out for in this year’s FIFA World Cup.

Part 1: When in the lead

The first thing that should be noted is that all the statistical information collected encompass the previous five World Cups, this arbitrary decision to only take into account the World Cups from France 1998 through Brazil 2014 was made due to the simple fact those have been the only World Cups with 32 participants.

We all like to believe in the concept that anything can happen during the World Cup no matter who is on the field. We believe most of the participating nations have the ability to surprise an established elite nation, especially in the early rounds and that no matter what the score is at any point of a game it can suddenly turn on its head.

However, based on the history of the last five tournaments, the single most important factor to determine which team will win a game is simply which of the teams on the field manages to score the first goal. Just taking into account the 219 out of 240 group stage games that have been played since 1998 (scoreless draws were not taken into account), a team that goes down 1-0, has managed to come back to win a game less than 11 percent of the time. If you score first, the statistical likelihood of you winning a game is nearly 70 percent.

There are many small statistical points that are very intriguing and bizarre. For example, it’s logical to think that the earlier you take the lead in a game, the easier it may be to lose that lead after all is very different to defend a lead for 85 minutes as to only five minutes or less. However, less than 10 percent of the teams that take a lead in the opening 15 minutes of a game go on to lose, the win percentage does dip to 62.63 percent but the possibility of a tie rises to 25 percent.

So what is the worst moment in a game to take the lead?

It turns out that if you take the lead between the 16th and 31st minute of a game you’re more prone to see your opponent come back and win the game. Statistically speaking, the probability of losing a game increases to 21.3 percent, nearly double the average.

Not impressed yet? Out of the 24 come-from-behind wins that have occurred in the group stage since 1998, more than half (13) have happened when the eventual losing team takes the lead within this time frame. The last six come-from-behind wins saw this happen.

Here is the list of victims

1998: Brazil v. Norway — Brazil took the lead in the 78th minute, but with two late goals Norway won the game 2-1. Brazil had already secured the group’s first place and is a statistical outlier.

1998: Spain v. Nigeria — Spain scored in the 21st minute, but eventually went on to lose 3-2, and crashed out of the tournament in the first stage.

1998: Korea Republic v. Mexico — The Asian side went ahead on the scoreboard in the 27th minute. Mexico scored three times in the second half to win 3-1.

2002: Spain v. Paraguay — Paraguay took the lead in the 10th minute. Lost 3-1.

2002: Slovenia v. Paraguay — Slovenia took the lead in the 45th minute. Lost 3-1.

2002: Brazil v. Turkey — Turkey took the lead in the 45th minute. Lost 2-1.

2002: Sweden v. Nigeria — Nigeria took the lead in the 27th minute. Lost 2-1.

2002: Italy v. Croatia — Italy took the lead in the 55th minute. Lost 2-1.

2002: Mexico v. Ecuador — Ecuador took the lead in the 5th minute. Lost 2-1

2006: Costa Rica v. Poland — Costa Rica took the lead in the 25th minute. Lost 2-1.

2006: Ivory Coast v. Serbia and Montenegro — Serbia and Montenegro took the lead in the 10th minute. Lost 3-2.

2006: Australia v. Japan — Japan took the lead in the 26th minute. Lost 3-1.

2006: Japan v. Brazil — Japan took the lead in the 34th minute. Lost 4-1.

2006: Korea Republic v. Togo — Togo took the lead in the 31st minute. Lost 2-1.

2006: Spain v. Tunisia — Tunisia took the lead in the 8th minute. Lost 3-1.

2010: Nigeria v. Greece — Nigeria took the lead in the 16th minute. Lost 2-1.

2010: Cameroon v. Denmark — Cameroon took the lead in the 10th minute. Lost 2-1.

2014: Brazil v. Croatia — Croatia took the lead in the 11th minute. Lost 3-1.

2014: Spain v. Netherlands — Spain took the lead in the 27th minute. Lost 5-1.

2014: Ivory Coast v. Japan — Japan took the lead in the 16th minute. Lost 2-1.

2014: Uruguay v. Costa Rica — Uruguay took the lead in the 24th minute. Lost 3-1.

2014: Switzerland v. Ecuador — Ecuador took the lead in the 22nd minute. Lost 2-1.

2014: Honduras v. Ecuador — Honduras took the lead in the 31st minute. Lost 2-1.

2014: Belgium v. Algeria — Algeria took the lead in the 25th minute. Lost 2-1.

Overall stat breakdown (out of 240 group stage games)

Percentage of games ending 0-0 — 8.75%

A team comes back to win — 10.96%

Comes back to tie — 19.63%

Take the lead and wins — 69.40%

Result if a team takes the lead in minutes 1-15 — (Win – 62.63%) (Tie – 25%) (Lose 9.38%)

Take the lead in minutes 16-30 — (Win – 65.52%) (Tie – 15.52%) (Lose 18.97%)

Take the lead in minutes 31-HT — (Win – 69.23%) (Tie – 17.95%) (Lose 12.82%)

Take the lead in minutes 46-60 — (Win – 65.38%) (Tie – 30.77%) (Lose 3.85%)

Take the lead in minutes 61-75 — (Win – 82.65%) (Tie – 17.65%) (Lose 0%)

Take the lead in minutes 75-FT — (Win – 87.5%) (Tie – 6.25%) (Lose 6.25%)

The only team that has taken the lead after the 55th minute and lost was Brazil against Norway in 1998. the last time a team turned around a result after conceding the first goal in the second half was back in 2002. Since then any opening goals in the second half almost guarantee a win; a tie at worst.

Other common scenarios:

I decided to look at two other scenarios that happen often, what happens when a team that leads 1-0 concedes a goal? and how much do your chances of winning improve when you go up 2-0?

It’s hard to get a firm conclusion based on the first question as anything can happen. Although you have a 70 percent chance to win when taking the lead, once you conceded, you’re chances of winning take a sharp nosedive.

So here is the scenario, if Team A leads 1-0, then Team B ties the game at 1. How do the probabilities change for Team A?

Winning probability: 22.5%

Losing probability: 31.25%

Tie: 46.25%

So, in Russia, when the team you’re rooting for inevitably goes down 2-0, you want to know the chances your team has to come back and get something out of it, right?

Well, you may just want to check what else is on TV. Teams that take a 2-0 lead have an 84-1-6 record in World Cup Group Stage history (since 1998).

Statistically, that means the team that takes a 2-0 lead will win the game 92.31 percent of the time, tie 6.59% and lose just 1.1% of the time.

Only one team has led 2-0 and lost, that was courtesy of the worst team in the 2006 World Cup, Serbia and Montenegro who lead Ivory Coast 2-0 after 20 minutes but lost 3-2. Keep in mind, Ivory Coast scored twice from the penalty spot in the process.

In 1998, Mexico erased a two-goal deficit in back-to-back games. Mexico trailed 2-0 against Belgium at the half and trailed by the same score against the Netherlands just after 20 minutes, but came back to tie in both of those games.

In the same tournament, Germany erased a 2-0 deficit against Yugoslavia.

In 2002, it happened twice, Paraguay squandered a 2-0 lead against South Africa, while Senegal stole their thunder by drawing Uruguay 3-3 after they had a 3-0 lead at the half. That is the only time in the 32-team world cup era that a team has failed to win after leading by three or more.

The single instance in which this happened in South Africa 2010, was when the United States came back from a 2-0 deficit at the half against Slovenia to tie the game and remains the last time any team squandered a two-goal lead in a group stage game.

They say a 2-0 lead is the trickiest scoreline, but at least for the World Cup, it is not the case.

Knockout Stage:

Because the first and second stages of the world cup are very different, I separated them into two sections and simplified the numbers by removing ties. The question I sought an answer to was, percentage-wise what is the likelihood that a team that scores first will advance to the next stage?

The simple answer is that the team that scores first will advance 81.16 percent of the time. It’s unsurprising the numbers are this high as this is when the specialists shine and demonstrate their ability to close games.

Here is a look at how the numbers shape per stage: (Third place games were not considered because no one cares.)

Round of 16: 83.78% probability of winning.

Quarterfinals: 70.59%

Semifinals: 88.89% (Croatia v. France in 1998 is the only exception)

Final: 81.16% (France v. Italy in 2006 is the lone exception)

All 23 teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in the World Cups since 1998 have won or advanced. Teams that began trailing in a game and tied at 1-1 advanced 56.5 percent of the time.

Obviously, when you’re watching at home you need to keep in mind these numbers are based solely on historic precedents over the previous five tournaments. The talent and depth of the teams involved have nothing to do with these numbers.